Betting Math Preview
How BetBot turns a sportsbook price into a probability, finds an edge, and decides whether a bet is worth making — in plain English.
The Five Numbers
The win probability baked into a sportsbook's price. A -150 favorite implies about 60%. This figure includes the book's built-in margin (the vig), so the listed sides always add up to more than 100%.
The sportsbook chance with the vig stripped out, so both sides total exactly 100%. This is the market's honest estimate of how likely the outcome really is once the book's cut is removed.
BetBot's own model estimate of the outcome's true probability, built from team and player stats, matchups, and recent form — independent of what the sportsbook is offering.
BetBot Chance minus the Fair Market Chance. A positive edge means BetBot thinks the outcome is more likely than the market does — the gap that, in theory, makes a price worth backing.
What a bet is worth on average per unit staked, combining BetBot's win probability with the payout the price offers. Positive EV bets win money over the long run; BetBot only cards picks with enough edge to clear the vig.
Sample Calculations
6Worked from real moneyline prices on the odds board. Sportsbook % = implied probability from the price. BetBot % here is an illustrative model estimate (Fair Market % nudged by a small modeled lean); Edge = BetBot % − Sportsbook %.
The +450 price implies a 18.2% chance. BetBot models 20.7%, a positive edge of +2.5% — worth a closer look.
The -700 price implies a 87.5% chance. BetBot models 85.0%, a negative edge of -2.5% — not worth backing at this price.
The +215 price implies a 31.7% chance. BetBot models 34.2%, a positive edge of +2.5% — worth a closer look.
The -260 price implies a 72.2% chance. BetBot models 69.7%, a negative edge of -2.5% — not worth backing at this price.
The +500 price implies a 16.7% chance. BetBot models 19.2%, a positive edge of +2.5% — worth a closer look.
The -910 price implies a 90.1% chance. BetBot models 87.6%, a negative edge of -2.5% — not worth backing at this price.